Senin, 15 Januari 2018

The Debrief: First thoughts on conference title games


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Gregg Rosenthal catches you up on everything you need to know as we turn from the Divisional Round to Conference Championship weekend.

Well, that was fun. If anyone needed a refresher on why football is our greatest, most heart-stopping, maddening, unpredictable, electric and beautiful sport, this Divisional Round weekend did the trick. (Unless you are a Saints fan. Or a Steelers, Falcons or Titans fan. Apologies.)

Stefon Diggs' Minneapolis Miracle capped one of the great playoff games in NFL history, which included a 17-point comeback by a Hall of Fame quarterback against the league's best defense, four lead changes in the final 3:01 and perhaps the weight of a long-suffering fanbase lifted.

It takes a truly special game to render a 45-point performance by a Blake Bortles-led Jaguars team in Heinz Field the second most breathtaking development of the day. With last year's NFC Champions deposed of on Saturday and brand name quarterbacks like Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger kicked out of the tournament on Sunday, Conference Championship weekend has a distinct three Davids and a Goliath feel to it.

Consider: The Patriots have appeared in seven (consecutive) conference championships in the time since the last appearance from the Eagles, Vikings or Jaguars. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have appeared in seven Super Bowls together, while the Eagles have appeared in two overall, the Vikings haven't made one since the 1970's and the Jaguars haven't made one at all. Tom Brady has been a part of 26 playoff victories, while Nick Foles, Case Keenum and Blake Bortles all tasted success as a playoff starter for the first time this year. You get the idea.

After a season so often defined by who was missing, this was an essential weekend for the NFL. It was a reminder of the sport's infinite possibility and felt like a table-setter in a crazy season that can only end with Goliath falling to one of the three Davids left.

First thoughts about Conference Championship Weekend

1. The 'book' on how to beat Tom Brady has long resembled the gameplan from the 2007 New York Giants. Disrupting Brady's timing with a strong front four without sending extra pass rushers is Job 1. Get pressure on him up the middle is key. Find some cornerbacks like the recent vintage Denver Broncos who are able to play physical man coverage against the Patriots' smaller receivers.

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Few defenses in recent NFL history are better suited to execute that gameplan than the 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars. Brady is at another level in finding the right matchups, but there is no substitute for a defense that can simply overwhelm any opponent with physicality and talent. This Jaguars defense has a chance to do that.

2. There's no way to know which Jaguars offense will show up next week. It's not just Blake Bortles, who finished off Sunday's win over the Steelers in style. From the team's offensive line to its running backs to its playcalling, no offense has a bigger variance from week to week than the Jaguars. The playoffs are a perfect example, with the team's offensive no-show against Buffalo to Sunday's laser show in Pittsburgh. This is not a new trend. Playing like world beaters on offense one week and egg beaters the next week are who the Jaguars are on offense.

3. It wasn't just the opponent that made the Patriots look so dominant on Saturday against Tennessee. They are an appreciably different offense with James White and Chris Hogan fully healthy, helping to replace the snaps of players like Kenny Britt and Phillip Dorsett who were playing big snaps late in the season. A healthy version of defensive end Trey Flowers transforms the entire defense, while linebackers Kyle Van Noy and James Harrison improve the run defense significantly. New England survived a lot of injuries throughout the season and look healthier now than they have in a while, which bodes well against the Jaguars.

4. Eagles coach Doug Pederson did a masterful job Saturday helping quarterback Nick Foles against a talented Falcons defense. Pederson will have to do even better with the Vikings defense coming to town. The Saints appeared to be a far more favorable matchup for the Eagles because points will be so hard to come by against Minnesota.

5. Nick Foles considered retirement after losing his job to Case Keenum on a Rams team on their way out of St. Louis in 2015. It is beyond preposterous that those two men are facing off in the NFC Championship Game, with Foles' old replacement in Philadelphia Sam Bradford waiting in the wings should Keenum get hurt.

6. This is a defense-heavy final four. Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan all fell victim to defenses ranked in the top-five of Football Outsiders' DVOA. (Although it's worth noting the Eagles only have homefield advantage because of their MVP candidate quarterback Carson Wentz.) The Patriots ranked 31st in defensive DVOA, but still finished fifth in points allowed before their eight-sack performance against the Titans. Bill Belichick has figured out how to cover up this defense's shortcomings.

7. The Vikings losing in Philadelphia after that ending in Minneapolis would be awfully anticlimactic.

Offseason questions for vanquished teams

1. Roethlisberger won't publicly contemplate a potential retirement that no one believes this time around. He confirmed after Sunday's 45-42 loss to the Jaguars that he'll be back next season, but what will the team around him look like?

Le'Veon Bell wants a new contract and has an unlikely retirement threat of his own if he doesn't get a long-term deal. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley is a free agent and could be on the way out.

Haley has undeniably helped Big Ben to the most productive, consistent seasons of his career. But Sunday's loss was a microcosm of so many Steelers shortcomings of this decade. Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Bell dazzled with individual brilliance rarely seen on the same field yet the team made too many mental mistakes. (Roethlisberger's early turnovers, Haley's fourth-down play calls and the curious game management decisions from Mike Tomlin come to mind.)

Ultimately, Roethlisberger threw for five touchdowns and helped to score 42 points with 545 yards against the league's best defense. It was Tomlin's defense, once again, that came up short on the game's biggest stage.

2. The Steelers wore 'Shalieve' shirts before Sunday's game to support linebacker Ryan Shazier and his recovery from a spinal injury. Shazier's story is so much bigger than football and yet it's also the biggest story there is related to football. Information is scarce, but I can only hope there are positive updates throughout the coming months related to Shazier's rehabilitation.

3. The Titans and coach Mike Mularkey are negotiating an extension, according to NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. The job status of most NFL coaches is a year-to-year proposition, but it's worth wondering if Tennessee won the battle, but lost the war in Marcus Mariota's development by sneaking into the playoffs through tiebreakers and beating the Chiefs in the Wild Card round. It will be Mularkey's priority to re-shape his offense to better suit Mariota's strengths this offseason.

4. Atlanta's roster, especially on defense, is in excellent shape to make another run at a Super Bowl in 2018. In an NFC that included five new playoff teams, the Falcons are the team most built to last because of their youth and roster depth. Coach Dan Quinn appears committed to retaining offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian despite a predictable, underachieving performance throughout 2017. The Falcons were only one play away in another playoff loss and they seem likely to stay the course as a franchise.

5. The Saints need to settle Drew Brees' contract situation before moving forward with the rest of their offseason. (Remember that his last contract standoff ate up the team's entire offseason.) This is a young roster that has a lot of injured players who will return in 2018, which is reason for optimism after the team's devastating defeat. At 39 years old, however, it will be difficult to get back to the same point of the playoffs with Brees playing at such a high level. This NFC was theirs for the taking, which makes the squandered comeback on Sunday all the more painful.

Questions that will never be answered

1. Did the Saints coaching staff have their defense aligned correctly on Diggs' touchdown?

Saints safety Marcus Williams will understandably get blamed historically, a heartbreaking moment for a terrific 21-year-old rookie safety who ignited the team's comeback in Minnesota with an earlier interception. But it was strange to see the Saints aligned with so few defenders in the deep part of the field with only ten seconds left and no timeouts.

The Vikings offensive line also deserves credit for blocking up the play after the Saints pass rush wrecked havoc on the closing sequences of the game.

2. Does Saints coach Sean Payton regret running on third-and-1 with 33 seconds left?

The failed play call, a one-yard loss by Alvin Kamara made logical sense, forcing the Vikings to use a timeout before the Saints lined up for a go-ahead field goal. But these are the go for broke Saints and Payton must have considered letting Brees throw on play-action for a first down. The Saints could then set up a closer field goal and kill the clock entirely. New Orleans' decision to send their ensuing kickoff into the end zone for a touchback also gave the Vikings the extra time they needed to set up history.

3. Did Titans coach Mike Mularkey really say the offensive pass interference call against receiver Eric Decker will 'go down in history?'

The penalty in question was a judgment call that the refs appeared to get wrong, although it was hardly the most egregious miss of the weekend. (Or even in the Titans-Patriots game.) The play also took place on the Titans' side of the field in a 7-7 game early in the second quarter. The Patriots went on to score 35 straight points and outgain the Titans 304-65 in the second and third quarter and that's the play that made the difference?

4. What would have happened if Eagles coach Doug Pederson went for fourth-and-1 with 6:05 left?

The Eagles were leading 12-10 at the time. In the locker room after the game, Eagles offensive players confirmed to NFL.com that Pederson wanted to go for it and sent in a play call. But Pederson's indecision caused the Eagles to run out of time on the play clock, burn a timeout, eventually causing Pederson to reconsider and kick a field goal. It worked out and it's quite possible that going for it would have worked out even better considering the way Philadelphia's stout offensive line was playing. Ultimately Pederson got a great result from a faulty process and his original intention would have dramatically changed the end of the game one way or another.

5. What if Matt Ryan had given Julio Jones a better ball on first-and-goal?

Sarkisian rightfully took a lot of grief for his playcalling sequence to end Atlanta's season. But it's hard to question his first-and-goal call that was quickly forgotten in the mess to follow.

Jones was matched up against Eagles cornerback Ronald Darby on the outside, with no safety help. Ryan's fade pass was too high for Jones to reach. A better ball perhaps saves Sarkisian from himself. The Falcons know better than any team that seasons can turn on moments like that. This weekend of playoff action was a reminder those moments can happen when you least expect it.

Follow Gregg Rosenthal on Twitter @greggrosenthal.

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from Sports - Google News http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000906902/article/the-debrief-first-thoughts-on-conference-title-games
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